Macro Environment
The State of Yield.
We are living in an anomaly. The "Yield Curve" is inverted—meaning cash and short-term bills pay more than long-term bonds.
The Play: Stay liquid. Ride the "Short End" of the curve.
Fed Watch
March 18, 2026
Next FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Probability of Cut62%
US Treasury Yield Curve
Inverted5.42%
1 Mo
5.4%
3 Mo
5.32%
6 Mo
4.9%
1 Yr
4.45%
2 Yr
4.12%
10 Yr
*Notice how 1-Month bills pay more than 10-Year bonds. This is why we recommend T-Bills.
Yield Delta Strategy
With the curve inverted, there is zero incentive to lock your money away for 10 years. Keep cash in Short-Term Treasuries (1M - 6M) or High-Yield Savings to capture the 5%+ rates while maintaining liquidity.