Databricks
Databricks raised $15B at a $62B valuation — one of the largest private rounds in tech history. The raise gives the company a multi-year runway and removes any urgency to go public.
Revenue is growing 50%+ year-over-year. The data lakehouse model (combining data warehousing and data lake capabilities) has become an enterprise standard. The competition with Snowflake is real and intensifying but Databricks has the open-source community moat via Apache Spark and Delta Lake.
DST Global and GIC's participation signals international institutional confidence. The $62B valuation at 50%+ growth implies roughly 15-20x forward revenue — stretched but justifiable for category-defining infrastructure.
YD Take: Databricks has excellent dividend initiation potential post-IPO given the subscription revenue model and enterprise stickiness. Secondary shares are the current access route. IPO likely in 2027 when market conditions are more favorable. A public listing at $80-100B is possible given continued growth trajectory.
- —Snowflake and cloud providers competing aggressively
- —IPO delayed — 2027 timeline means extended illiquidity
- —Massive raise increases dilution pressure at IPO
- —Enterprise sales cycles lengthening in macro uncertainty
- +Open-source Delta Lake and Apache Spark community moat
- +AI/ML workloads driving lakehouse adoption
- +International expansion via GIC and DST relationships
- +IPO at $80-100B possible on current trajectory
Risk-adjusted return potential score
Moderate dividend potential, dependent on FCF conversion timeline